Guests: John Fund, Jason Thomas, John Stossel, Megan Quinn, Tyson Slocum, James Hirsen, Flavia Colgan, Jill Dobson, Tom O‘Neil
SCARBOROUGH: Here with us now, ABC newsman John Stossel. He‘s the author, of course, of the best-selling book, “Myths, Lies, and Downright Stupidity: Get Out the Shovel, Why Everything You Know is Wrong.” We also have Peak Oil leader Megan Quinn and outreach director for the Community Solution. We also have Tyson Slocum. He is the director of Public Citizen‘s Energy Program.
Megan, let‘s start with you. You‘re preparing for the end of American society as we know it, certainly the end of suburban society, this consumption society, when you say our oil reserves are going to run out in the near future. What you are all doing to prepare for that, and how bad is it going to get?
MEGAN QUINN, OUTREACH DIRECTOR, THE COMMUNITY SOLUTION: Well, oil isn‘t running out. What we‘re doing is we‘re actually reaching the peak of global oil production. And what that means is that we‘re halfway through the resource. But from the peak, we have declining oil production. Meanwhile demand is soaring, as we all know.
So the peak actually is the fundamental change from a society of cheap and abundant oil, a society that is allowed to grow into the suburbs, to an era of scarce and expensive oil. And that‘s what people are starting to prepare for around the country.
SCARBOROUGH: Now, according to this month‘s cover issue of “Harpers” magazine, titled “Imagine There is No Oil: Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse,” peak oilers say, quote, “Violent chaos will rule after the collapse of oil production, and the oilers‘ hope is to ride this time out in self-sufficient interim communities they call lifeboats.”
Megan, here‘s a drawing from your organization of a planned lifeboat where each home will be smaller than 1,000 square feet and will be built with straw bales, cordwood and stick adobe. And there will be no driveways, garages, streets, lights, or air-conditioners. There will be only wood bathroom per home with a composting toilet.
Megan, is it going to really come to that?
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QUINN: Well, violence and chaos, that scenario is a possibility.
And, you know, we saw it with Hurricane Katrina how bad things got that we weren‘t expecting it.
So I think what people are doing is preparing for the worst even while expecting the best. And so these lifeboats that you mentioned is a way that people can, in their communities, start to prepare. And what they‘re looking at is local food production, local energy production, security for their households and their families, but also security at the community level. And I think that‘s intelligent to do, no matter what happens.
SCARBOROUGH: John Stossel, are we running out of oil, and are we facing an apocalypse like “Harpers” claims we are?
JOHN STOSSEL, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: No, I don‘t think so. The doomsayers have been saying things like that for years. Remember, it was the overpopulation that was going to cause violent chaos and mass starvation in the streets. I mean, even Megan‘s group said peak oil was going to happen in 1970, and then they changed it to 2000. But 2006 was record production. So it will happen someday, but we keep finding new oil.
SCARBOROUGH: But it won‘t be the death of the suburban dream, as this film shows us?
STOSSEL: Well, we have supplies of coal and uranium to fuel America for a hundred years. Right now, there is oil shale in just one province of Canada that‘s enough to fuel America for 100 years. The price is going to go up. The price is already up. But at that price, it‘s profitable to pull oil out of the shale.
SCARBOROUGH: But we‘ve heard for years that U.S. oil consumption alone is going to dry up all the oil reserves across the world. Is that one of those myths that you talk about in your book?
STOSSEL: Well, we do consume more than other people do around the world. But it implies so little faith in human ingenuity. We keep finding more oil in more places and, at today‘s prices, we‘re going to find a lot of new oil.
SCARBOROUGH: And so you don‘t think that we‘re facing any sort of doomsday scenario anytime soon?
STOSSEL: I used to believe these doomsday prophesies, but I‘ve stopped believing in them. Remember Y2K was going to shut down all the computers, crash the planes, shut down the electric supply? The swine flu was going to kill thousands of Americans? Then bird flu? It just goes on and on.
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TYSON SLOCUM, DIRECTOR, PUBLIC CITIZEN‘S ENERGY PROGRAM: John, where exactly are we going to find this new oil? I mean, the fact is, is that 75 percent of the world‘s oil resources are located in parts of the world that are openly hostile to U.S. interests. Depending upon a future based upon oil to fuel our economy is a doomsday scenario. We may not have reached peak oil yet. But even if we haven‘t, the fact is, is that the United States only has 1.7 percent of the world‘s oil.
SCARBOROUGH: And, Tyson, so does that mean that it‘s going to be the end of the suburban American dream as we know it?
SLOCUM: Well, I think we definitely need to change some of our practices to become more sustainable. Does that entail incredibly radical steps? Not necessarily. I mean, all we have to do is start increasing investments in things like mass transit so that more people can have options to do something other than jump in their car.
We can increase investments in alternative fuels, in electric-powered cars, bigger investments in energy efficiency. I mean, right now, America‘s energy policy as put together by the Bush administration is giving huge subsidies to oil companies. That‘s what last year‘s energy bill did.
SCARBOROUGH: John Stossel, I know you‘re not a big friend of oil subsidies, but those other things that were ticked off, do you think that may be a way for us to avert a coming crisis?
STOSSEL: It‘s possible, but no. They talk in terms of, “Let‘s invest.” But when he says, “We should invest,” what the left is really saying is, “Give us your money. We will come and forcibly take your money for a Manhattan Project that will invest in some form of cure that we believe in.” And these boondoggles have taken billions of dollars from Americans. Remember the synfuels project? Time and time again.
Prices are high now. That gets the private sector to search for oil, which is far better than turning our freedom over to government bureaucrats who are going to find the cure.
SCARBOROUGH: And you don‘t think the price of oil skyrocketing is necessarily a bad thing, do you?
STOSSEL: Well, it‘s bad for a lot of people who are struggling to pay for it.
SCARBOROUGH: Right. But just as far as the future…
STOSSEL: But that‘s the market helping solve the problem.
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SCARBOROUGH: The market solves the problem, because it goes up, people search for more oil, people start conserving oil? The market drives car companies to make cars that will get 40 miles to a gallon instead of 15 miles to a gallon, is that where the free hand of the marketplace helps solve this problem?
STOSSEL: And in the oil sands of Canada, which last I checked was a friendly country, we have enough, says Shell oil, to fuel America for about 100 years.
SCARBOROUGH: All right. Thank you, John. Thank you, Megan. Thank you, Tyson. Greatly appreciate it.
Megan Quinn Bachman 