Episode # 134 Shocks, Shortages, and Scenarios – Planning for a Post-Oil Future
Responding to peak oil will require reshaping our communities. These two interviews, taped in September 2008 at the ASPO-USA conference, are with Megan Quinn Bachman of Community Solutions, and Bryn Davidson of Dynamic Cities Project.
Megan observes that while the ASPO-USA conference focuses on the energy depletion problem, what’s needed are solutions and strategies for communities and people. Her town’s anxious response to a recent power outage provided a lesson, as many people didn’t know what to do, nor had they built a network of mutual support. We need community contingency plans for sharing and surviving with less energy. [www.communitysolution.org]
Arriving in Grand Rapids, Michigan for the ambitiously named “International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change,” I could see that the airport was undergoing a major expansion. The soaring, optimistic curves of the new Gerald R. Ford International Airport seemed at odds with recent news about sky-high jet fuel prices and crumbling airlines – the new reality that was the subject of the conference.
Peak oil refers to the moment in time when the world achieves the all time maximum volume of oil production. World oil production has been flat for more than two years now, and a growing collection of geologists, environmentalists and economists say that peak oil has arrived, to be followed soon by an inevitable decline.
For those who expect an alternative fuel or technology to replace oil, the conference held out no hope. Keynote speaker David Goodstein, professor of physics at Caltech, and author of the book, Out of Gas, went through all of the alternatives: coal, natural gas, biofuels, solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear and showed how each one has severe physical limitations in the real world. For instance, here is his take on nuclear energy:
“To produce enough nuclear power to equal the power we currently get from fossil fuels, you would have to build 10,000 of the largest possible nuclear power plants. That’s a huge, probably nonviable initiative, and at that burn rate, our known reserves of uranium would last only for 10 or 20 years.”
Even given that the post-oil economy will have to depend on more than one technology, many speakers emphasized the difficulty of building massive new infrastructure at a time when energy and materials are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive.
The upshot is that we have waited too long for this to be an easy transition. Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines, was particularly stark in his assessment. He said that during their lifetime, the baby boomers will have used up half of the world’s recoverable resources, leaving very little for future generations. He said that famine and massive dislocation of populations is inevitable and potentially billions of people will die: “The future is already here, it is just not evenly distributed yet – look at New Orleans and Baghdad.” And yet, he said, we cannot give into despair because “what we do right now will make an enormous difference in how many survive. We must act.”
Paradoxically, I found the 200 or so conference attendees to be an optimistic crew in some ways. Most crucially, the early advent of peak oil and peak coal will place a physical limit on direct human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
Chemist Linda Schweitzer said, “I believe that 85 to 90 percent of all species of life would become extinct by 2100 if we did not have peak oil. Peak oil will force us to completely change our way of life. The consolation is that while I may be impoverished and die sooner than I would otherwise, at least life on the planet will continue.”
Richard Heinberg said that it is easy for politicians to give lip service to climate change and the moral imperative to save polar bears without any real commitment to action. Even California’s stringent climate legislation has an escape clause in case greenhouse gas regulations impact economic growth. But peak oil has no escape clause. “Peak oil is not optional,” Heinberg said.
When asked if peak oil and coal have been accounted for in climate change models, Heinberg replied that some of the climate models are “patently ridiculous” in their assumptions about the potential growth in fossil fuel emissions. However, he emphasized that recent news on the sensitivity of climate to greenhouse emissions is very bad and we cannot afford to be complacent. It is likely that we have already have reached critical climate tipping points and will need to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide currently in the atmosphere.
Heinberg called peak coal “an enormous opportunity” to reframe climate change issues. His analysis sees coal production peaking within the next 15 – 20 years, which is within the planning horizon for the new coal fired power plants that are being built. In this context, relying on coal for our power is not only a bad environmental decision; it is a bad economic decision.
Admittedly, while committed environmentalists may be able to see the bright side of peak oil in terms of climate change, it will be a hard sell to most people. Several breakout sessions and many hallway and pub discussions were devoted to the difficulty of communicating the threats and opportunities of peak oil. It is not a message that most people want to hear.
One of the things that I love about the Midwest (confession: I am from there) is the often selfless practicality of the people. Perhaps it is because, as Garrison Keillor says, “Midwesterners are brought up to expect the worst…we call it pervasive negative anticipation.” In other words, Midwesterners are born knowing how to put up storm windows.
So it was no surprise to hear Pat Murphy of The Community Solution say, “I want to disabuse you of any idea that a technical solution is just around the corner,” and then go on to describe his program of radical retrofits to convert the nation’s existing housing stock to fully weatherized buildings that can hold heat in the cold Michigan winters. I think it is no accident that the first grassroots peak oil conferences have taken place in Michigan and in Yellow Springs, Ohio where The Community Solution is based.
After thoroughly demolishing the prospects for the continuation of business as usual, the conference got down to the nitty gritty of survival in the post-carbon era. A plethora of breakout sessions offered ideas for community currency (peak money is also a concern), sustainable agriculture, local power generation, urban gardening, high tech carpooling, recycling and community preparedness.
Megan Quinn Bachman, also of The Community Solution and co-producer of the film, The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, stressed the need for community contingency planning. In Cuba, she said, a group of agronomists had prepared an organic agriculture plan that sat on the shelf until the Russian economy collapsed and oil imports were cut in half. When the crisis hit, a blueprint was in place to guide what has become a very successful transformation to sustainable, low-input agriculture.
Quinn Bachman gave many examples of local action where citizens are inserting peak oil contingency plans into municipal and county planning processes. Even if most people in a community are not aware of impending peak oil, when the crisis hits, the contingency plan will give a context and a path forward for the town or county.
It struck me that peak oil contingency plans might function as sort of a reverse “Shock Doctrine,” the theory spelled out by Naomi Klein in her book of that name. The shock doctrine refers to the violent hijacking of economies in Latin America and elsewhere by corporate interests. The technique, developed over several decades, involved US encouragement of brutal military regimes that could impose a crisis. Standing in the ready would be economists trained by Milton Friedman and his Chicago School of Economics to administer the cure – an economic shock treatment of radical privatization and slashing of social services.
Milton Friedman is now famous for saying: “Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.” What many peak oil activists are tying to do now is to provide a school of ideas that will be “lying around” as the reality of peak oil becomes inescapable.
Peak oil will impact our mental as well as our physical reality and we should be prepared for that too. Writer Stephanie Mills told the conference that she has been dealing with “pre-traumatic stress syndrome” in anticipation of the hard times ahead. Mills became famous in 1969 for her college commencement address titled “The Future is a Cruel Hoax,” where she announced that after reading Paul Ehrlich’s book, The Population Bomb, she had vowed to refrain from childbearing. This is still a radical notion to many people.
Mills shared some thoughts about how we can retain our humanity and equilibrium in the face of economic collapse. She said she uses a mental image from ballet. When a dancer spins, she maintains her balance by focusing on a fixed point. Human goodness and natural regeneration are what we should focus on. “We will still have hearts and souls,” she said, “and the sun is rising and setting every day.”
In keeping with the values of living simply and slowing down, values that we must cultivate for the future, Stephanie Mills used the Roman phrase festina lenta – to make haste slowly – invoking the Italian lifestyle of leisurely meals, relaxed conversation with friends and rest in the shade on hot afternoons. She said, “If we are panicked or stampeded…we may not get the kinds if results that will make for a good future for the seventh generation.”
Earlier, Richard Heinberg had made a similar point. “Emphasize what is not at peak,” he said, “community, solidarity, cooperation, ingenuity, artistry, free time.”
In the Midwest and elsewhere, people are embracing these values that they hope will see us through the turbulent times ahead. As in every other era of history, our challenge and our choice will be to focus on our shared humanity and resist the impulse to greed and violence. That choice, ultimately, is our only hope.
Megan Quinn has always been passionate about environmental and social justice issues, so the 2004 graduate knew she wanted to work for an organization where she could make a difference. As a diplomacy and foreign affairs major, Megan was interested in working for a non-profit organization and landed a job as outreach director for Community Solutions, a Yellow Springs, Ohio, organization that addresses energy and climate issues.
All about oil
A prominent issue at Community Solutions is the use of fossil fuels and preparing for “peak oil,” when global oil demand will begin to outstrip supply, leading to shortages and rising prices. Megan gave her senior honors thesis presentation on peak oil, and she is part of a growing movement to make U.S. energy more sustainable and to develop more sustainable lifestyles.
Speaking out
Megan has written several articles for publication and has spoken at conferences across the country and the world for her cause. “The main aspect of my work is outreach communication with individual and community groups. It’s a very grassroots movement.”
Role model
As one of the few women and younger people speaking publicly on the issues of energy and climate, Megan is making strides in a field usually dominated by men. “It’s a very rewarding job,” she said. “I’m engaged with activists and organizers and educators who are really trying to create a better world.”
Advice to young grads
“Follow your heart and your passion. It might be looked down upon or frightening to work for a non-profit, or to do work that might not bring immediate material rewards, but in the long run it will be more satisfying to work for a cause that you believe in.”
Megan in front of Hamilton Hall leading a group of Miami students in a disucssion of peak oil in 2006.
Occupation: Outreach director for Community Solution, a nonprofit in Ohio that develops strategies for reducing household energy consumption as a response to peak oil and climate change.
Her interest in peak oil: Her father, Thomas, an award-winning editor at the Cleveland Plain Dealer, turned her onto the idea of peak oil when she was in college. She then read Richard Heinbergs 2003 book, The Partys Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrialized Societies.
Favorite green books: Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines, Richard Heinberg; The Citizen-Powered Energy Handbook: Community Solutions to a Global Crisis, Greg Pahl, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning, George Monbiot.
HER Living Green Tips
n Food: The unhealthiest food turns out to be the most energy-intensive. So eat less, reduce meat consumption from grain-fed animals, avoid manufactured foods, cook more and eat more fresh, seasonal fruits and vegetables and
more beans, whole grains, and nuts. Buy your food from local farmers at
farmers markets and farm stands, or as part of a community-supported agricultural subscription farm, and grow some of your own.
n Housing: After replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescents, you can plug leaks, upgrade to new windows, create window
covers, replace old refrigerators, washing machines and dishwashers, and add insulation, even if it means building new interior walls. The principle is to
thicken and tighten. Downgrade to a smaller home if possible; youll have less
to heat and cool.
n Transportation: Walk, bicycle and use mass transit if possible, or move to a community where it is possible. Otherwise, share rides as often as you can by setting up regular carpools to work, schools and stores, combining trips and planning ahead. Buy a smaller, more efficient car if you need one.
Q. Your film has been called “a marvelous film that provides a welcome abundance of toxic, depressing predictions for the future in the world of post-Peak Oil.” It has an optimistic bent. Why?
A. We saw that people were scared to death by so many of the movies and the articles predicting doom and gloom, and they were so much in a state of despair and denial that they weren’t doing anything. They just continued their overconsumptive lifestyle because they were immobilized by fear. So, we wanted to provide people with some possibilities for action, some practical options. We were so inspired by the innovation and perseverance of the Cuban people when the Soviet Union collapsed and they lost half their oil overnight. We thought we could motivate Americans to do a little bit more and start taking some small steps to address peak oil and climate change before we have a crisis like Cuba.
Q.Has that happened?
A. Yes. I think it has encouraged people to start curtailing their energy use and moving toward more cooperative living. We hear about people who have never gardened before start trying.
But for the most part, the film is a tool to spread the message that our energy-intensive lifestyles cannot go on forever and that we need to develop local and personal responses. We receive reports that the discussions after the film lead to a lot of community efforts. So the film is a way to bring people together so they can get excited about these ideas, and they take off running wherever they see they need to go.
Q.How do you see America handling this peak-oil idea?
A. That is probably the No. 1 question we get asked after the film. We often hear: ‘Well, it worked for Cuba. But they are socialists, an island nation, and more homogenous than we are.’ But I think there are some lessons we can take from Cuba — particularly their transition to small, organic, local farming, decentralized energy generation, and local economic exchange.
A lot of people are describing dark possibilities for America — of fuel shortages and economic collapse leading to marauding gangs ransacking houses, siphoning gas from gas tanks and squashing our sustainable gardens and communities.
That certainly is a possibility. But another possibility, one with much more historical precedence — is of people coming together to take care of each other, share scarce resources, and create more resilient economies. I think that was best demonstrated during the Great Depression and World War II, when we saw a lot of these cooperative efforts.
Q. You’re talking about something that is pretty radical and pretty scary. How do you calm people’s fears?
A. The least fearful people I know are those doing as much as they can to prepare, not just reading about it or watching the news. That doesn’t say they’re not afraid. But they’re trying to transform some of that fear into positive action. One of my favorite quotes recently is, ‘Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgment that something else is more important than fear.”
Q.Why does that quote speak to you?
A. Courageous living, in contrast to sustainable living, implies that it won’t be easy, that it’s going to be a challenge to change our habits. It also implies a deep moral driver to live in a way where we are not contributing to catastrophic climate changes and increased energy vulnerability for future generations.
But at the same time, this quote acknowledges the fear of failing to avoid creating a radically altered climate. We need to find a way to be motivated by this fear, rather than constricted by it, and continue to strive to avoid that possible future.
Q. OK, the automobile is so much a part of who we are. How do you change that?
A. That’s a hard one because the personal car is so convenient, and we think we can just hop in the car at anytime and go anywhere we want. I think the solution for the car, which has probably been the most destructive single device of industrial society, is in developing another way to make decisions beyond monetary concerns. We see a product at the grocery store and we evaluate if we should buy it or not based upon how much it costs. In addition to price, we should think about where it came from and the energy it took to manufacture it and bring it here.
So before buying a car, or driving it somewhere, we should consider how much energy will be burned, and what are the costs to all of society and future generations.
Q. You say “Power of Community” has resonated with people. Why?
A. I think in the sustainability movement everyone is talking about technologies. But we are talking about something that is much more human, about providing for each other’s needs, not just installing solar panels. It’s a more feminine and spiritual approach, as well, because it speaks to greater need of connection with one another. It is also positive because it means that we can live with fewer material resources but be happier because we have stronger relationships.
Q.Did the film resonate in Greensboro?
A.Absolutely.
Q. How does Greensboro compare to other communities that you have been to?
A. It’s moving beyond the just talking about the issue to creating and demonstrating solutions. That is the biggest hurdle to jump over.
Q. How do you see our future, our country’s future?
A. I’m hopeful, and I say that instead of optimistic. Hope is much more grounded in practical action. Hope has its sleeves rolled up, working in the dirt, whereas optimism is sitting on the couch thinking, ‘Somebody will take care of it, and everything will be OK.’ But it’s still going to be a challenge because life may not be as convenient, comfortable, or easy as our current existence, where we can flip a light switch and not think about the consequences or about possible shortages.But it can be a life that is much more rich and fulfilling as we spend more time without our friends and family in our communities and we’re not running around all over the place, interacting with screens instead of people. That’s why I’m hopeful.
As major contributors to world oil depletion and climate change, Americans eat more, drive more and demand more living space than any other society. By learning how to eat locally, ride-share more efficiently and live in less energy-consuming spaces, individuals as well as communities can become part of the answer to these problems. “Planning for Hard Times,” the fourth U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions to be held at Antioch College this Friday to Sunday, Oct. 26 to 28, will explore how the small community can model massive lifestyle change in the areas of food, housing and transportation.
The critical nature of the small community as a solution to the fuel and climate change crises becomes clearer each year, at least to those at The Community Services, Inc., who sponsor the annual Peak Oil conference. When the conferences began in 2004, the focus was on what peak oil was, when it would occur and how it might affect the country and the world.
But events in recent years, according to Community Solution outreach director Megan Quinn Bachman and representative Faith Morgan, have revealed a more dire picture of the decline in world oil reserves, evidenced by the rise in oil prices, which hit an all-time high of 89 dollars per barrel this month. The pollution caused by the world’s rising use of fuel has led to a climate change crisis that has already manifested in the monstrous hurricanes in 2005 and the melting of the polar ice caps, they believe.
According to figures from the Community Solution, while the production of just one ton of CO2 emissions per person each year in the U.S. would be sustainable, currently the U.S. produces 20 tons of CO2 per person.
“‘Planning for Hard Times’ is stating boldly that we are facing some challenging times ahead, and we need to develop practical skills to change the way we approach food, housing and transportation,” Quinn said. “We’re going to need drastic cuts, on the order of 90 to 95 percent reduction in energy use, in order to avoid the kind of crisis that is consuming.”
By preparing now, said Morgan, creator of the film The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil, communities can avoid what will be a devastating collapse of the worldwide manufacturing and transportation systems we currently rely on for nearly all of our needs. We will also need to reduce our carbon emissions by 90 percent by 2050 to avoid the climate change that also threatens us.
The change will involve moving the institutions that ground the current American lifestyle. Regarding the way we eat, according to the Community Solution Web site, the average American is accustomed to being able to choose from 300,000 food and beverage items based in large part on manufactured variations of wheat, corn sweeteners, hydrogenated soybean oil and a spectrum of artificial flavors. The current food industry, for every one calorie consumed, requires 10 calories of energy to process and transport the food from the manufacturing site to its destination.
The Community Solution’s new food model, which would alleviate dependence on fuel, includes rebuilding local agriculture into the community, through local crop fields, orchards and vegetable gardens, as well as reinstituting canning and saving for the winter months.
As for housing, homes are the biggest single source of energy consumption, and given the 100 million homes that already exist, retrofitting by installing energy-efficient windows, reinforcing insulation, damming air leaks and installing energy-efficient appliances is the more effective way of reducing energy consumption in the home. Transportation too must embrace a new system known at the “smart Jitney,” or ride-share system coordinated through cell phones, the Internet and GPS and utilizing private vehicles, according to the Web site.
Speaking at the conference this year is internationally known author David Korten, author of When Corporations Rule the World and more recently The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community, a look at how corporate consolidation models the rise of empires, which create “fortune for the few and misery for the many,” according to Korten’s personal Web site.
Korten will give the keynote talk on Friday evening, from 7:30 to 9 p.m., on The Great Turning, which outlines the morally imperative choice people have to transition from a dominator society to one that functions through partnership and cooperation. According to Quinn, that way of living would necessitate more sustainable practices and a return to the local community.
Thomas Princen is associate professor of natural resources and environmental policy at the University of Michigan and the author of The Logic of Sufficiency, his second publication about seeking enough when more is possible. The book addresses how to live well when resources are running low without sacrifice or suffering by relying on group principles. Princen’s first book, Confronting Consumption, won the 2003 International Studies Association Award for best work in international environmental politics. He will give Saturday night’s address from 7 to 8:30 p.m.
Returning to the conference this year to speak is world-renowned peak oil educator Richard Heinberg, a research fellow of the Post Carbon Institute and faculty member of New College of California where he teaches a program on “Culture, Ecology and Sustainable Community.” Other speakers include Linda Wigington, Affordable Comfort Inc.’s manager of program design and development, Judy Wicks, founder of the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies, author Sharon Astyk, and area residents Bob Steinbach and Larry Halpern.
The cost to attend the conference (after the early registration discount) is $200 for Community Solution members, $225 for nonmembers and $145 for students, all of which includes Saturday’s lunch and dinner and Sunday’s lunch. Yellow Springs residents are also invited to attend single sessions for $10 per session.
PROfIlE
pReppINg THe mASSeS
naMe: MEGAN QuINN
aGe: 24
lOCaTIOn: YEllOW SPRINGS, OHIO
OCCUpaTIOn: OuTREAcH DIREcTOR Of THE cOMMuNITY SOluTION
IT’S cAlled peAk OIl, the theory that when humanity exhausts the earth of half of its oil supply, production will peak, then irreversibly decline, the result of which won’t be pretty. Luckily for the world there’s The Community Solution, a non-profit organization dedicated to educating the masses about oil depletion, its crippling effects, and how to ease the transition from stretch Hummer to cozy rickshaw.
Is there any way to prevent the Peak Oil crisis?
The debate is no longer “if” oil will peak, but when, and how quickly production will decline. The faster the decline, the bigger the crisis. If we continue to burn oil as if there’s no tomorrow, then the American and world economies will crash much harder—and faster—after we start sliding down the peak.
What are the best and worst-case scenarios of the Peak Oil aftermath?
After the peak, oil will become increasingly scarce and expensive. There will be no immediate substitutes for oil to maintain economic growth in our debt-based, centralized economies. We will face oil shortages far worse than in the 1970s, resulting in worldwide economic collapse and perhaps nuclear confrontation over access to dwindling oil supplies.
In the best-case scenario, nations across the planet agree to reduce their oil consumption to avoid conflict, drastically curtail other energy use, decentralize their economies, promote local food production for local consumption, and install locally controlled renewable energy systems.
You’re the Outreach Director for The Community Solution. What is the main goal you hope to achieve over the next 5-10 years?
First, we aim to educate people about the impending peak, what it means for their lives, and what they can do about it. We provide information and tools to help individuals cut their energy use, live more locally, and spread Peak Oil awareness in their communities. We hope that Peak Oil and climate change are widely recognized as two aspects of the same problem of over-consumption and that local and global efforts are made to prevent the worst.
What can we do to help prepare for Peak Oil?
First, we need to recognize that we will not live the materially abundant, over-consumptive, energy-wasteful lives that our Baby Boomer-era parents did. Second, we should re-examine our planned occupations, future goals, and consumptive habits in light of imminent oil scarcity and the long-term depletion of oil and other natural resources. Third, we have the responsibility to help our friends, family, and community during this tremendous transition.
Your website references a new documentary called “The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil.” What can the US learn from how Cuba dealt, and is still dealing, with its own Peak Oil situation?
When the Soviet Union—Cuba’s oil lifeline—collapsed in the early 1990s, Cuba lost half of its oil overnight. Transportation halted, people went hungry, and the average Cuban lost 20 pounds. In response, Cubans developed organic agriculture, urban gardens, small-scale renewable energy, and energy-saving mass transit while maintaining free health care and education systems. Cuba provides a model for how people can come together in a community to survive while using much less energy and preserving vital infrastructure.
WHEN THE OIL RUNS DRY: ANTIOCH CONFERENCE DISCUSSES PREEMPTIVE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOLUTIONS
It is late afternoon on a crisp early autumn day in Yellow Springs and I am biking to the Third U.S. Conference on “Peak Oil” and Community Solutions held on the Antioch College campus. Opting for the bike seemed to be the appropriate choice, not only because I imagined parking will be tight, but I am about to embark on a weekend of examing the implications of ‘Peak Oil’. I get there and sure enough, the streets around the college are bumper to bumper with Priuses and Insights sporting license plates from Maine to Florida, without a Hummer in sight.
For the third year in a row, Community Solution, a local organization dedicated to the growth and development of small communities, has sponsored the conference. This year’s focus — ‘Plan C – Lifestyle Alternatives’ is a “strategy of cultural change, conservation, curtailment and community.”According to their website, ‘Plans A & B’ “seek to maintain unsustainable levels of resource consumption through energy alternatives,” hence this year’s emphasis on cultural change.
But what is ‘Peak Oil’? ‘Peak Oil’ is the point in time when we will have used up roughly half of the recoverable oil reserves left in the world. This refers to conventional oil which has dominated world oil production and will likely continue to do so in the future. In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist and Chief Consultant to Shell Oil, created what has become known as Hubbert’s Curve. He predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and was widely scoffed at and considered a quack until about 1973 when his analysis proved to be remarkably accurate. Apparently, peaks become more quantifiable in retrospect. He went on to predict that world oil production would peak in the mid-1990’s. The explanation for why it didn’t is that the Arab Oil Embargo of the early 1970’s pushed this back a few years.
There seems to be little debate among geologists, economists, oil companies and governement agencies that oil will eventually peak. The contentious part is when. The predictions range from a peak occurring this year with a more optimistic view coming from the US Department of Energy of 2030 (1). The issue of what happens on the downside of the peak is troubling, to say the least. One might conclude if it took us 140 years from the beginning of the industrial revolution for us to use up this much oil, we’ve got at least another 140 years left in which to develop alternative energy sources.
This line of thinking is complicted by several factors. The first being that analysis of countries that have already peaked in their oil production, for example, the UK, Norway, and Venezuela (2), indicates that the drop off from the peak is very steep. Another issue is the rate at which our consumption steadily increases each year, not to mention the continued growth in China and India.
A third factor is the difficult question of supply. The fact is we have no idea how much oil Saudi Arabia – our chief supplier of oil – really has left or which of their major oil fields, now over 50 years old, are near or past peak. We believe what they tell us because we don’t have much choice. They are under no obligation to provide any internal data and they do not allow foreign inspections of their oil fields.
Matthew Simmons, a leading energy investment banker to the likes of Halliburton, GE and the World Bank, energy-policy adviser to the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign and author of the recent book Twilight in the Desert, believes that Saudi Arabia’s production has indeed peaked and that we will be facing large oil price shocks in the very near future. In a recent interview he said, “I believe we are either at or very close to peak oil. If I’m right, then we have to assume that five or 10 years from now we’ll be producing less oil than we are today. And yet we have a society that is expecting, under the most conservative assumptions that oil usage will grow by at least 30 to 50% over the next 25 years. In other words, we would end up with only 70% of the oil we have today when we would need to have 150%.” (3)
But back to the leafy Antioch College campus and the convocation in progress. The weekend was filled with lectures and workshops on everything from how to build a straw bale house (energy savings: 75%), how to retrofit existing houses, to how to dig up your front lawn and plant a ‘Victory Garden’, a term dusted off and resurrected from WWII when people turned to growing their own food to supplement their rations.
This was not a conference for ‘Peak Oil’ newbies. While Antioch’s Kelly Hall played host to over 300 participants across a diverse range of ages, geographic homes and walks of life – farmers, teachers, builders, activists, to name a few – this was clearly a group already up to speed on the issue and who were ready to learn some hands on tactics about what to do next.
The draw for many this weekend was no doubt Richard Heinberg, the unofficial leader of the ‘Peak Oil’ movement, author of The Party’s Over: Oil and the Fate of Industrial Civilization and professor at the New School in Santa Barbara, California. Heinberg is unassuming in appearance but projects a commanding presence on stage. He is a lively and funny speaker and led the audience through an update on ‘Peak Oil’ today, including a rebuttal to the hits the theory has taken in the media lately with falling gas prices (attributed in part to lack of hurricanes, lessened demand and the election season) and to the discovery of Jack 2, an allegedly enormous oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. On this point, he remarked that it only seems so big because everything else found lately has been so piddling by comparison. What matters, he pointed out, is the rate of flow coming to market. Jack 2 is eventually expected to produce 400,000 barrels per day, while America alone currently consumes 21 million barrels a day (4). The US government itself predicts a rate of increase in world oil consumption of 1.4% a year to 98.3 million barrels a day in 2015 to 118 million barrels a day in 2030. (5) At that rate, it doesn’t look like Jack 2 is going to make any significant contribution to offsetting ‘Peak Oil.’
When asked if Americans face a more uphill battle than the rest of the world in coming to terms with peak oil, he said “Absolutely. We’re marinated in propaganda every day and most of it is absolutely in the wrong direction and it’s deepening the kind of denial that most Americans are in, which is their sense of entitlement to cheap energy.”
Heinberg’s latest book is The Oil Depletion Protocol, the title of which refers to an international agreement that will enable nations to cooperatively reduce their dependence on oil by 2.6% per year. It was initially proposed by Colin Campbell, a prominent petroleum geologist and founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. Whereas the Kyoto Agreement focuses on what comes out of the tail pipe, the Oil Depletion Protocol focuses on what goes into it. Heinberg is currently promoting the initiative worldwide.
While it seems like a long shot that the U.S., China or Russia would voluntarily adopt such a long range plan to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, (Sweden being one of the only countries that has pledged to be fossil fuel free by 2020), Heinberg stressed that without taking such measures we will be exposing ourselves to price volatility, increased international conflicts over remaining oil reserves, accelerated climate change and the danger of trying to produce oil at maximum production speeds which will only damage what oil reserves are left. He believes that the only morally responsible path to take is to leave as much oil as possible in the ground for future generations.
Finally, Heinberg said that if we are going to play out the addicition to oil metaphor, as characterized by President Bush, then we are simply lining the shelves with methadone, rather than taking less heroin. Meaning that focusing on bio-fuels or corn-based ethanol and hoping that the market or latest technology will rescue us in the eleventh hour, is no substitute for simply consuming less.
Next, Julian Darley took the stage. He is the author of High Noon for Natural Gas and founder of the Post Carbon Institute, described as a “think tank for an energy constrained world.” Darley introduced the idea of ‘global relocalization’ as an antidote to globalization, the former being the pursuit of rebuilding and retrofitting communities to strengthen local production, shorten supply chains, move from a foot to fuel economy and build low energy infrastructure. He encouraged us to borrow from the past in our thinking of solutions to today’s problems. Just as the composers Bach and Handel were great borrowers of their time, we should borrow from the infrastructure and architecture of European cities in considering how to build close-knit, sustainable communities for the future.
Other speakers included David Orr, the eminent environmentalist and author of Earth in Mind and many more, who gave a rousing political speech which skewered America’s mass consumerism (4% of the world’s population consumes 26% of its energy) and proposed that corporate power is the main reason why climate change and ‘peak oil’ have not gotten on the political agenda. A ten foot high PowerPoint presentation projected tentacles of darting hurricane paths splaying out like spider veins against the backdrop, their increase traced in dark purple lines. Downstage, Orr paced back and forth and held forth to a rapt audience that we must recast our political discourse from a debate between left and right, to those who care about changing the present for the future and those who do not.
Saturday night the conference diverted from the practical to the more esoteric and spiritual aspects of the issue. Vicki Robin, co-author of the bestselling Your Money or Your Life, gave an impassioned talk on the idea of the freedom to be found within limits. She lamented the fact that the very word ‘limits’ is practically off-limits for discussion in American society. Yet she believes that “the boundaries of our world are sites of incredible creativity if you honor them.” She challenged the audience to redefine limits as the “shaping tools of freedom” – an invitation to learn to live lightly, yet creatively, in a world of finite resources.
In between lectures the crowd gathered outside, many eating apples provided by nearby orchards and networking as if it were a software conference. The two days were packed end to end with speakers on sustainable building, permaculture (an ecological design system which aims to create sustainable habitats by following nature’s patterns) and relocalization. There was the student from Ohio State who recently switched his major to environmental economics and was considering investing in compact fluorescent bulbs for his apartment to see how much energy he and his roommates could save. Then there was the massage therapist from Hawaii who came to learn how to start a biodynamic farm. There was the trucking company worker from Dayton who said he talks to anyone who will listen about peak oil because “it’s not just about having enough money to feed your SUV, it’s about not being able to feed yourself at all.”
Tucked back into our seats again we listened to Richard Olson talk about the Eco-village at Berea College, Kentucky; Peter Bane, publisher of Permaculture Activist, discuss the future face of farming in America; and Sharon Astyk, a mother of four young children, discuss running a Community Supported Agriculture farm with her husband in upstate New York and living a frugal lifestyle. At one point she came out from behind the podium and stood before the audience and said, “Look at me. I’m average. If I can do this, any one of you can do this.”When Peter Bane addressed the packed hall he predicted that the coming decade will be defined by the question “Who feeds you and whom do you feed?” He thinks that we may well see a return to traditional social groups that characterized the first part of the 20th century of 15-25 people living closely together. He elicited groans of laughter when he itemized the potential roster of people: “Grandma and grandma, sons and daughters, spouses, kids, a spinster aunt, a couple of orphans and hired hands.”
One of the last speakers was Pat Murphy, Executive Director of Community Solution, who introduced their plan for a “Smart Jitney”, a small bus that carries passengers over a regular route on a flexible schedule. The jitney would be fitted with a ‘Smart Jitney Cell phone’, GPS system, emergency call button and a reservation/tracking computer system — a very thinking-outside-the-box solution to America’s insistence on individual car ownership.
* * *
The weekend is finally drawing to a close and I’m wiped out. My brain has shifted into some previously unknown gear in an attempt to process all the new information I’ve gleaned. I expected to be more depressed after being immersed in such gloomy statistics for the last several weeks. In addition to reading books on ‘Peak Oil’ and climate change in preparation for this, I also read Harper Magazine’s August issue which featured a story by Brian Urstadt entitled, “Imagine there’s no Oil: Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse” in which he characterizes the ‘Peak Oil’ movement as a cabal of geeky doomsayers and chronicles America’s obsessions with visions of Armageddon. He seemed to suggest that ‘Peakists’ have chosen to believe in ‘Peak Oil’ as if it were an act of faith requiring some sort of personal salvation, when in fact, it is a thesis now supported both by a large body of scientific evidence and experts from a wide political spectrum and fields of interest. For example, a major supporter is Congressman Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland who is described as a “very conservative Republican”.
This weekend I’ve witnessed a group of people coming together to creatively address a very real problem. It seems that no matter how you slice it, even if you take the wild-eyed optimistic view of plentiful, cheap oil for another 20 years, how can we not act now to change our habits both as individuals and as a country? As Dr. Bob Brecha, the straw bale house builder and professor at UD asked the audience, “How often are we faced with the opportunity to make slight changes in our behavior to address three major world problems at once – climate change, peak oil, and international conflicts? How can we not act?”
By Sunday night there was the whiff of a nascent revolution in the air. There was a tangible expectancy that somehow this group of three hundred strong would begin the work of knitting our communities, relocalizing our economies, our work lives, our food production and redefining our long-standing love affair with the automobile. When it comes to the idea of ‘Peak Oil’ occurring in my lifetime, and certainly my children’s lifetime, I decided I can either feel like a deer in headlights and just choose to ignore it and ‘keep on trucking’ (no pun intended) or I can start with three practical ways to consume less oil: buy locally produced food, insulate or retrofit my home for highest efficiency, and drive less. Whew….one down, at least my bike is parked outside.
This is Peak Moment. We are living in a peak of human innovation, information, wealth, and health; but we are also at a peak of population and consumption, with rising temperatures and declining resources fueled by cheap oil and gas. Peak Moment Television, bringing you examples of positive responses to energy decline and climate change through local community action.
Janaia Donaldson: Hi, welcome to Peak Moment, I’m Janaia Donaldson. In the world of localization groups, some groups are out ahead of the rest of us, and I have a wonderful guest today that’s part of that. I’m with Megan Quinn, whose the outreach director for The Community Solution, which is a project of community service in Ohio. Welcome, welcome — we’re in Oregon here, very different?
Megan Quinn: Oh very different, yes. It’s beautiful, though.
Janaia Donaldson: We like it, we like it here on the west. Well, you’ve been at this longer than a lot of the relocalization groups, looking at this whole issue of peak oil and so on. The exciting buzz around the community at this point is the film that you have just come out with. Tell us the name of it, tell us what it was like doing it.
Megan Quinn: We just finished producing “The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil”. It’s a project that’s been going on for about three years in our organization, collecting research and going down there to film. What we researched, what we found out about was that when the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost half their oil overnight.
Janaia Donaldson: So we’re dealing with the early 1990s?
Megan Quinn: Yes, the early 90s, and what they’ve done since has been amazing. They’ve transitioned to all organic agriculture, developed urban gardens, renewable energy sources, some innovative transportation things. We thought it was really critical to document what they’re doing there and bring it back to the U.S. as we face our peak oil crisis.
Janaia Donaldson: So they’re a model for us.
Megan Quinn: Absolutely.
Janaia Donaldson: How long did it take you in the filming. You were part of the crew, right?
Megan Quinn: Yeah. We went down there in October of 2004, for ten days to do the filming, and have been in post production since and are glad to get that film out there in the world. We’ve heard some great responses so far, from it. It’s being used in public screenings all around the country to raise awareness about Peak Oil, but also to give people some hope and some options for what they can do in their own communities.
Janaia Donaldson: You’re doing the right ingredients there, because if we give the news of Peak Oil, it’s like ‘Oh my God, the world’s going to end’ and people will stop and then stay in denial. So if we come and say, ‘but look, there’s a model, there’s transitions, it’s possible for us.’
Megan Quinn: Absolutely.
Janaia Donaldson: There’s certainly some different factors in their country than our country, right?
Megan Quinn: Absolutely, yeah.
Janaia Donaldson: Let’s take a look at those, because those are some of the lessons we’re going to learn from. They had a tough time, for a while, which we might also. What was that like, and how long?
Megan Quinn: In the early nineties it was a hard crash. There was an economic depression, their GDP dropped by a third — and this is happening in a period of weeks, so it was really sudden for them. Malnutrition started giving rise, their average calories were cut by a third. There were cases of blindness because of the malnutrition. It was really a tough time for Cubans.
Janaia Donaldson: They were doing industrial agriculture, like we are now, so with no oil they can’t run their machines and tractors and all that.
Megan Quinn: Exactly. Cuba was on the industrial path, they were on the Soviet path, so it just blind-sided them. But, they took action, in their communities, as individuals, to survive. They took these series of steps that has led them to a much more sustainable way of life. They now realize that they were going in the wrong direction before, so it’s really amazing to see that turn around in Cuba.
Janaia Donaldson: If you would describe the after, I mean, here they are. What do you find in terms of health, agriculture, transportation, way of life, calories?
Megan Quinn: Well, their calories are back up to where they were before the crisis, but they’re eating much more healthy food. They’re eating locally grown greens; in Cuba, basically people ate pork, beans, and rice before the crisis and now they’re demanding all these great vegetables and herbs and everything. Certainly their health has improved, they’re bicycling more and they’re walking more, so their health has also improved because of that. There’s a lower incidence of heart-attacks and lower cholesterol, that kind of thing. That’s been great. Also, just in agriculture, really agriculture has been their greatest accomplishment and their most sustained accomplishment since the crisis. Eighty-five percent of their agriculture is now organic.
Janaia Donaldson: Truly?
Megan Quinn: Yes.
Janaia Donaldson: That’s remarkable.
Megan Quinn: It is remarkable. The key thing is they’re growing food where people are. They’re growing food in urban areas, in Havana especially, which is home to 2.2 million people. There’s larger urban farms, as well as gardens on people’s patios and rooftops, and they’re just cultivating food wherever they are.
Megan Quinn: Yeah.
Janaia Donaldson: So on the gardens in town, are they state run? How does the government play into this, because you’ve got a dictatorship there.
Megan Quinn: Right.
Janaia Donaldson: That’s got some pluses and minuses. I mean, one thing about a dictator is he says, if we’re all going organic gardening, we all go organic gardening.
Megan Quinn: Yes.
Janaia Donaldson: So there’s a different play to that than we might have.
Megan Quinn: Certainly. The government has done a lot of things to incentives, which I’ll get to in a moment. At the beginning of the crisis, the government really couldn’t do anything. Things were happening so fast. What they did was actually relinquish more control to the local communities. The CDRs, the block organizations in Cuba, actually identified plots of idle land within the community, cleaned them up, and formed urban gardens there.
Janaia Donaldson: So it began from the people.
Megan Quinn: It really came from the grassroots in Cuba. At the same time, the government really encouraged, they developed more research into organic agriculture and bio-pesticides and bio-fertilizers. Cuba’s now exporting bio-pesticides and bio-fertilizers all over Latin America. The government is also– They called 2006 the year of the energy revolution, and they’re going around to homes all around Cuba, and they’re giving them fluorescent lights, and more energy efficient appliances, and educating them about it so that they can reduce their energy use even more.
Megan Quinn: It’s really amazing.
Janaia Donaldson: That is really, really exciting. What lessons did you bring back? What can you help bring us to our Western way of life here? What can you imagine for the American people?
Megan Quinn: Well the main thing is that America is very different from Cuba. First of all, we’re a much more individualized country; in Cuba there was a greater sense of community and neighbor–
Janaia Donaldson: –Already there, still.
Megan Quinn: Already there, not only from their socialist past, but as an island nation that is continually under foreign domination, from the Spanish to the English to the U.S. We don’t have that same sense of it, yet at the same time, if you go back a little bit more in our history, when we were predominantly a community of small towns and small communities, we did have that sense of a common vision as a community, helping each other and exchanging on a local level. I think we have that, but at the same time, we’ve come to this individualized, mass consumption society, so perhaps our biggest challenge is learning how to relate with each other again and have strong local relationships — face to face relationships, not face to tube.
Janaia Donaldson: Face to tube, I like that. Or in our little metal boxes, all of us in our little vehicles in our little isolated world, which is the plus and minus of what oil has given us, certainly the mobility, but on the other hand the isolation for that. So that really kind of leads to the name of your project.
Megan Quinn: –Yeah, The Community Solution, absolutely.
Janaia Donaldson: What has your project been involved with? What are you seeing happening in the movement, broadly?
Megan Quinn: Our organization, essentially, proposes the fact that Peak Oil might actually be a good thing because we’re going to be going back more into local relationships and local exchanges and out of our isolated little metal boxes and working together again. We really think that that’s the source of human happiness, that consuming all of these fossil fuels and all the resources has not made us happy.
Janaia Donaldson: That’s right, the happiness index has really been interesting to see, the wealthier that we’re getting. At a certain point it’s like the more and more stuff, and you’re not happy anymore. People are finding people overwhelmed and overbooked and over-scheduled and the too-much-ness is sort of… This could be the blessing in peak oil to reduce that much-ness and come back to human connections.
Megan Quinn: Definitely. We think Peak Oil is an opportunity, actually, to return to a much more better and fulfilling way of life, healthier way of life, certainly. As you mentioned, getting our time back, and having more time for ourselves–
Janaia Donaldson: –And each other. We’re social critters.
Megan Quinn: We are. Janaia Donaldson: We’ve sort of gotten away from that.
Megan Quinn: Certainly.
Janaia Donaldson: What are you seeing happening in the movement at large, of the re-localization movement as other communities are waking up to what– Your group has been ahead of the curve for many of us, are you in talk with others? Where are we going?
Megan Quinn: One of the great developments, I think, that’s happened over probably about the past year, is incorporating global climate change into the message because I think that the solution that the government and corporations are really gonna come at us with is coal. Coal would just be devastating for the climate. I think that if we combine those two messages, it’s a really powerful way to convince people that we need to start looking at our way of life and reduce our consumption and conserve and curtail our use of energy.
Janaia Donaldson: I expect they will give us both big coal and big nuclear. Now big nuclear isn’t going to feed the climate change problem, but it has a whole other raft of problems.
Megan Quinn: Certainly, and it’s not liquid fuels, as well, which is the challenge of replacing–
Janaia Donaldson: Yes, we can do liquified coal, but that’s just not going to be… that’s another front we’re going to have to face at that point.
Megan Quinn: Yeah, certainly. I see that as a really good development of the two movements coming together. Peak Oil is really getting out there, among government policy makers and lobbying organizations it’s becoming a buzz word. Gore and Clinton and Robert Redford all drop the Peak Oil phrase on TV. It’s getting a lot of buzz, but at the same time, most of the environmental organizations that are working on Peak Oil or oil energy issues are proposing this whole raft of alternatives that are going to be able to replace everything so that the bottom line is that people don’t have to take action. I think that’s a dangerous message that they’re getting out there.
Janaia Donaldson: When you’re saying the environmental groups are putting out proposals for a whole bunch of other things,–
Megan Quinn: –Yes, particularly bio-fuels is I think really coming out strong now from environmentalists, but–
Janaia Donaldson: –We can get ethanol, and that will handle it, from corn, from sugar, whatever.
Megan Quinn: Absolutely, and they cite the Brazil example, of course, and they’ve done amazing things. First of all, sugar is not what corn is, and second of all, the main issue to deal with is the soil depletion that that causes. If we’re continually extracting more and more of the resources out of the soil, it’s just going to collapse even harder and the soil crisis is going to be just as bad as the oil crisis.
Janaia Donaldson: There’s part of the point. If it were only oil, then we could go to some of these other solutions, but it’s also fresh water, top soil, our fisheries, the oceans. We’re looking at resource depletion all over in lots of levels. The only single answer that sort of comes back to that is, use less.
Megan Quinn: Yep, absolutely. Live more locally, as you talked about.
Janaia Donaldson: Right, which consumes less, in it’s own way and nourishes more, actually, on different levels. That’s a good point about the environmental communities having that sort of tact, it’s not really–
Megan Quinn: I think that we need to educate them, and work with them, because, right now, they’re really causing a lot of damage, actually. When people learn about Peak Oil, they think, ‘Oh, I don’t have to do anything.’
Janaia Donaldson: Yes, and I can see that, certainly, a topic as daunting as Peak Oil, plus climate change, the first response that I find from people is like, ‘Oh my God… carry on with my life, somebody else will have to handle this, I’m just working to survive.’ So if it looks like the environmentals have answers, if it looks like the government has answers, then we can stay in that hobbit-hole. I’m not sure the message is out that we can’t sustain those bio-fuels, I mean the veggie-cars, people are getting excited about bio-diesel. Is that the same as you’re thinking about, with the ethanol and the sugar and so on, that that also is not sustainable.
Megan Quinn: Absolutely. It is not sustainable. Really there is no combination of alternatives that’s going to allow us to continue consuming as we have been. Even if there were alternatives, does that justify our use of them? Is this making us happy? What is the purpose of consuming these fuels? Is it giving us what it promised? I don’t think so, I think there’s a better way.
Janaia Donaldson: The better way. So part of what you’re shaping as ‘what’s that vision, what’s that better life on the other side?’ Where we’re more connected, where we’re more local, where things are slowed down and we have time again. People responding to that? Are you finding people changing their behavior because of that message–
Megan Quinn: –Oh yeah, everywhere, definitely, especially in these localization movements. That’s really what inspires me; seeing people that make those changes in their life and are more happy for it, seeing people start gardening and getting to know their neighbors. It’s wonderful, and there’s been amazing work that’s going on. At the same time, people coming together in their communities to start educating the greater community, and taking action there. I think it’s both important to make the changes in your own life and then work at the community level.
Janaia Donaldson: We’re finding that it’s a walk-your-talk place. Right? That’s part of it.
Megan Quinn: Yes, Definitely.
Janaia Donaldson: The other thing, and part of why it struck me, I think why I got on board to work with Peak Oil, is that I think climate change is the big issue. That’s the big one, that’s the big wild card here. But Peak Oil is going to hit everybody.
Megan Quinn: Yes, and their pocket-books–
Janaia Donaldson: –Regardless of your stripes, regardless of the flags, your church, whatever, we’re all going to feel it, and of course, the poor are going to feel it first. I am concerned for that community, which does lead me to ask: what are you finding are the topics that people don’t want to talk about, what they don’t want to face?
Megan Quinn: Well that’s certainly a key one. Inequity, both nationally and globally. There’s countries all around the world that are already facing Peak Oil because they can’t afford the fuel. Fidel Castro, actually, recently said in a talk that no Latin American nation can pay a hundred dollars for a barrel of oil. —
Janaia Donaldson: –Because nobody can afford it
Megan Quinn: Nobody can afford it.
Janaia Donaldson: We’re at what? 60 or 70 now, so it’s going there–
Megan Quinn: Exactly. As it gets worse, what it’s going to be is–If we try to maintain our consumptive level, then it’s essentially taking fuel from the poor people. For them, they’re not wasting it like we are. For them, the loss of oil is the loss of the water pump, it’s the loss of the basic electricity that keeps them alive. It’s a huge social justice issue as well.
Janaia Donaldson: I’m going to be the Devil’s advocate here. I can hear the average American start thinking, that’s too far away, that’s not on my radar screen. Not that I’m a bad person, the average American, but if I want to get in my car and go over and get a six-pack of beer, that’s my right as an American. I don’t want to be that ugly about it, but –or get milk, whatever, or take my kids to school–
Megan Quinn: Well, it’s a moral issue, is what it is. Another thing that I wanted to mention is the role of religion–
Janaia Donaldson: I was going to say, the church is –It’s a moral issue.
Megan Quinn: It is certainly a moral issue, both from the standpoint of taking fuel from the poor people around the world, as well as from future generations, as well as the damage that we’re doing to the environment and the other species. It is a very powerful moral issue and as things get worse, religions could play a role for either good or for bad. That’s something that I think that we all need to be aware of, and to start working within to get the message out there.
Janaia Donaldson: I just had this sense as you just said just now that they may be a critical tipping point for attitude here. Given how strong the faith community is, as we’ve seen it in our recent elections, they have a real pivotal role. I was heartened to meet a man in Salem who is doing green development, zero energy development. So when we have to do development he’s doing some–He’s doing all the right kinds of things. As a Christian was very pleased to have a minister at a very very large church in Idaho, was talking about who stepped forward in his denomination to say, we need to be keepers of God’s green earth. It sounds like the whole congregation, thousands of people, were on board. I find that heartening news, even though I haven’t yet personally –I would ask you that, have you stepped into any of the church communities and begun to share that message, and what kind of responses are you getting?
Megan Quinn: I’ve primarily been with the Quakers and with the Unitarian, Universalists, already churches that have a strong social justice component to serve their spirituality. I haven’t tried many more challenging ones. As well as the Catholic Church, actually, there’s a lot of really progressive elements within the church that are starting to look at this issue.
Janaia Donaldson: How much would Jesus consume?
Megan Quinn: Yeah, right. How many barrels of oil would he use a year?
Janaia Donaldson: That would be fun to say, this is Jesus’ ecological footprint if he were here in 2006. That would be an interesting project, that’s something to work on. What other kinds of topics are sort of, not OK to talk about here? I’m wondering, other’s that you’ve thought about…
Megan Quinn: One that comes to mind is the issue of farming and food. I know our country has had this backward look at farmers like they’re all stupid, rednecks, all the derogatory words that we use, but the fact is people are going to have to start getting involved in agriculture. I estimate somewhere between 25 and 50 percent of the population is going to be engaged in agriculture in some way.
Janaia Donaldson: Whoa, whoa, that’s big.
Megan Quinn: If you take away tractors, what you have to replace them with this human labor. I mean you can use animal labor, but you also need humans to take care of the animals–
Janaia Donaldson: –And you need more land to take care of the animals to grow for the animals as well. Yes. That’s a big percentage, 25 to 50. Now I realize that at the beginning of the 1900s–
Megan Quinn: It was about 50 percent.
Janaia Donaldson: Is that where we were.
Megan Quinn: About 150 years ago. Right now we’re about 2 or 3 percent.
Janaia Donaldson: Right, because we’ve got all those mechanical slaves–
Megan Quinn: Certainly. Exactly, we’ve replaced people with oil.
Janaia Donaldson: So we’ve got this challenging prospect of how do we make a couple of tough things look appealing, be inviting, have incentives, look both –Consume less (I mean that sounds totally against the American way) and come back to farming, come back to working with your hands. We’ve moved from blue-collar up into an information technology world.
Megan Quinn: Right, where most people really aren’t producing anything of real value. It’s all this in-your-head and on the computer, but what do you eat, what sustains you? People are going to have to be more engaged in directly sustaining themselves, which is how humans have been doing it for millions of years.
Janaia Donaldson: I understand that historically something like 80 percent were working at farming and growing to be able to support the remaining 20 percent of the warriors, and priests and lawyers and kings and the clerics.
Megan Quinn: Right, and I think there’s still going to be specialization. I don’t think everybody is going to have to be a farmer, but at some level, at some level, the backyard garden or of your own food processing and preserving. People are going to have to take responsibility for their food.
Janaia Donaldson: We have a long way to go on that. We had a come home to eat event in our community and got to hear from a panel of about twelve farmers, CSA, free-growers, ranchers, grass fed beef, and what we learned is, only one of them was making it on just their farming. He said that the three dollars they earned extra last year, they went out and spent on a dinner out–Joked about that. It’s not a lot.
Megan Quinn: Well, we’re going to have to start taking care of our farmers more. In Cuba, a farmer has a higher wage than an engineer or scientist. They’re really honored and respected in Cuban culture now.
Janaia Donaldson: We have a turn around to do, and to make it inviting to young people, that was one of the issues, that our average age is older and that knowledge and wisdom they’ve gotten–More that they will need to grow if it’s not mechanized. What are we going to use for organic methods of pest control, or disease control? We have a lot of knowledge to keep.
Megan Quinn: We do, and too, a lot of new innovations, I think, will come with a resurgence of new farmers and new minds that are working with the issues of farming. I think it will be a period of great innovation in the next few years, as we take all these steps to adapt to a post-Peak Oil reality.
Janaia Donaldson: How do you–we’ve got only about six minutes here– Do you have a sense of how our timing might shape up? I’m thinking about the young people needing to learn that farming and where we get the programs and whatever to make the transition. Got senses about that?
Megan Quinn: One thing that our organization has put forth is this model called Agraria. It’s essentially a way to develop local agriculture, local work places, as well as have a center for training, re-training farmers. I think that there’s going to have to be a lot of local level re-training of new farmers to get active in that. I don’t really know how things are going to go, I’m not a prophet. I feel though, that right now, time may be our most scarce resource of all. I think that we really need to start getting a lot of these things in place, at least as models, for when the crisis really hits, so that people will have options to look to like they have in Cuba. I’d really like to see some communities in the U.S. become models for that transition.
Janaia Donaldson: Mmm, that’s a great idea. Lay down the gauntlet for us.
Megan Quinn: I think that’s what the localization movement is all about, really. I think that’s really going to inspire people.
Janaia Donaldson: I think that people are feeling there’s a sense of how to do that and there’s a whole lot of space between here and there in accomplishing that. In the last bit here, are there things that–What inspires you? What other challenges do we have ahead of us here?
Megan Quinn: I think one of the challenges is media, and that’s what’s so great about your program, is that you’re really putting out really relevant and important information for people in the Peak Oil community. We have this horrific media in our country that is just bombarding people with constant messages about consuming and really is aiming to mislead people so that they don’t shake up the reality and change their way of life; consume less, essentially. I think we need to think about those issues and how we can get through to people. Part of it is on the more grass-roots level in our communities, but I think we also need to think about how we can be coordinating in the future.
Janaia Donaldson: I think it’s true. We are the media, since the corporate media has got everything sewed up in his own pocket of that consumptive model, our great capitalist system here. I do find that people want this information, and they want to share it, and they want to learn what the new things are. I think that also, going back to your mention about the environmental groups misleading us, in a sense, this is a counter to that because we have people like yourself saying bio-fuels aren’t going to be it. There’s a real need for the very active, independent media, to be saying, look guys, here’s the analysis. This isn’t going to fly. We are able to then present information, like you’re doing. We can have data that’s accurate.
Megan Quinn: Absolutely, and there’s a lot of great media out there. There’s certainly what you’re doing, Global Public Media, From the Wilderness publications. My organization takes very objective looks at all the alternatives, so I would encourage people to definitely check those out. At the same time we have an annual conference that we bring together for the movement, and we’re actually going to have a panel on localization, really working out the tough issues of localization in terms of how much can we realistically localize. We’re still going to have our computer chips coming in, obviously, we can’t–
Janaia Donaldson: I don’t think we want to give up our internet, I think that would be–I think that’s actually one of the things that’s part of the promise. We’re not going to go back to the 1800s here. That global communications network is too precious for us. It’s part of our being one whole planet, the view that we got, the view of Earth from space. So yeah, we’re not going to have our computer chips made. We are, for sure, going to have to think regionally as well as just locally. Besides, we are just not going to manage to grow chocolate here, right?
Megan Quinn: Or coffee.
Janaia Donaldson: Right. So, some of what we–I mean, trading is part of our reality.
Megan Quinn: Absolutely. So how can that proceed in a post-Peak Oil world? I think there’s a lot of great questions and there’s going to be a lot of great people at our conference, September 21st through the 23rd.
Janaia Donaldson: Back in Ohio.
Megan Quinn: Back in Ohio. More information at communitysolution.org. Hope you’ll be able to join us.
Janaia Donaldson: Oh I hope so too. That’d be fun to be there. We still have, however, we’ve got two minutes, we’ve got a post-script, a post-script.
Megan Quinn: OK
Janaia Donaldson: What do you love most about what you’re doing? What do you love most?
Megan Quinn: Well, there’s a great satisfaction in what I’m doing, not just for today but for future generations. I really feel that I’m doing good work for them. In meeting so many people around the country that care about future generations too, and care about the Earth, and it’s so wonderful and empowering to be with those kind of people. It’s just such a blessing to be part of this great movement, of wonderful exciting people that are getting active and taking responsibility for their own lives and for the lives of future generations.
Janaia Donaldson: You say it well. The community is already happening, by just these early, early pioneers in this movement. That you could probably feel welcome in nearly any community in America where this is beginning to take form. Thank you for joining me. This has been great fun.
Megan Quinn: Thank you so much.
Janaia Donaldson: My Guest is Megan Quinn of The Community Solution in Ohio. I’m Janaia Donaldson, and you’re watching Peak Moment, Community Responses to a Changing Energy Future. Join us next time.
Peak Moment Television, presented by Yuba Gals Independent Media
Produced by Janaia Donaldson
Directed by Robyn Mallgren
Megan Quinn Bachman 